Assesment of the present level of threat, conducted by PET.

● Executive Editor: Stephen Grey ➥ ✉ E-mail: ●

Assesment of the present level of threat conducted by PET.

Politiets Efterretningstjeneste.

Danish Security and Intelligence Service.

The original text in danish is to be found below the English translation.

Den originale danske tekst kan findes under den engelske oversættelse.

January 12, 2018

Assessment of the terrorist threat against Denmark.


CTA estimates that the terrorist threat to Denmark is serious.

The threat comes primarily from militant Islamism and derives from both men and women.
The conflict in Syria and Iraq and the group called the Islamic state (IS), are the main factors of threat.
Attack with simple means and short planning is the most likely form of terrorist attacks in Denmark.
The military effort in Syria and Iraq reduces IS’s capacity to
to direct larger complex attacks in the West and to recruit foreign supporters.
However, the passage to Europe is limited by increased security
actions that strengthened control of EU borders. Only a small part of the Danish expats is expected to return home.
IS and other militant Islamists will continue through
propaganda and otherwise to support and inspire simple terrorist attacks against the West.
The number of attacks in the West is increased from 2016 to 2017. CTA considers that radicalization as a result of militant Islamist ideology and propaganda will have a lasting effect on the threat picture, regardless of the situation
for IS in Syria.

CTA assesses that there is an increased focus on the refugee situation among individuals with extreme right-wing sympathies and that a threat emanates from them that may be directed towards e.g. asylum centres, refugees, religious minorities and related authorities.

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PET’s efforts in counter-extremism must prevent that groups or persons through the use of, for example, violence, vandalism or threats seek to achieve political goals.

In addition, the focus is on crimes that have an extremist background and, for example, is aimed at individuals and groups’ nationality, belief or sexual orientation. In addition, efforts must prevent extremists from performing criminal offences or threatening public order and security.

As part of this effort, PET is working closely with the rest of the police.
An important task of ensuring that the relevant police authorities know the threat picture and, in that context, are able to tailor the efforts in relation to the current threat.

PET’s efforts in counter-terrorism are rooted in the Center for Counter-extremism.


The left-wing groups in Denmark is characterized by ever-increasing professionalization and internationalization.

Even though the main opponent of the left extremist groups is still the extreme right, there is an increasing tendency for these groups to associate actions on political issues that not only have broad support in the activist community but a broad appeal in the population as such.
These include on integration and asylum policy and climate policy.

The link to political themes with a broad popular appeal means that the violent part of the left extremist groups can operate more anonymously and in the light of the more peaceful activist environment from which they seek to exploit the political and ideological activities of others with the purpose of creating confrontations with the police.

Right-wing extremism

The right-wing extremist groups in Denmark is still trying to actively recruit new members and sympathizers.

This happens through the spread and promotion of racist messages on the Internet and through the media.
The goal is to recruit and maintain followers and establish a conflict between the broad population and ethnic minorities.
In addition, right-wing extremists try to recruit from the Hooligan environment more than before.

Traditionally there has been a close cooperation between right-wing extremist groups in Denmark and similar abroad. through joint events and manifestations.

In addition, PET has found that parts of the right-wing extremist environment at home try to establish contact with violent extremist environments abroad.


The trend towards increased polarization and confrontation between persons and groupings from the right- and left-extremist environment in Denmark, according to PET, is still increasing. There has been an escalation in the confrontations between the wings, and both left and right extremists are increasingly focusing on systematically implementing violent actions aimed at each other’s events such as meetings, demonstrations and concerts.

The criminal offenses in this area arise from both leftist extremist and right-wing extremist circles, and PET is committed to targeting all forms of violent political extremism.

At the same time, there are also examples that these direct confrontations take place in close cooperation with the like-minded abroad, especially in Germany and Sweden. In addition, PET’s assessment continues to work in these environments to target weapons in the context of these confrontations.


In recent years there has been an increasing focus on threats and harassment against politicians and other public figures. The risk of being exposed to threats and harassment typically depends on the individual’s exposure to the public or derives from individual cases, and there are examples that politicians on both right and left are exposed to serious harassment at times.

PET is continuously informed about this type of case and, among other things, assesses whether the threats give reason to special security measures. It can be difficult to give an overall characteristic of those who harass and threaten politicians. There can be anything from people who are angry with the “system”, to the mentally ill, people who are affected by drugs or alcohol, or resource-rich citizens who are used to their will.
In addition, of course, the threat from extremist environments.

The threat from militant islamists

CTA assesses that the terror threat to Denmark remains significant. The group calling itself Islamic State (IS) continues to be the most important factor in the threat picture.
The military efforts against IS in Syria and Iraq have reduced the combat capa-
bility of the group as well as its territorial control. This has had the effect that IS has given more priority to hitting western targets through planned, more complex attacks such as the ones in Paris and Brussels.
Militant Islamists are still seeking to support and give inspiration to more simple terrorist attacks in the West.

CTA assesses that simple attacks with readily available means and short planning is the most likely form of terrorist attack in Denmark. Militant Islamist propaganda urging individuals to act increases the terror threat against unprotected civilian targets, e.g. crowded locations and transport infrastructure.
The support for IS has become less visible within Islamist circles in Denmark, but dissemination of propaganda, recruitment and radicalisation
as well as the facilitation of people and resources to conflict zones continues to take place. It is the assessment of CTA that a terror threat still emanates from militant individuals within these circles that may feature as operators or support network in connection with attack planning against Denmark. Women play a growing role within Islamist circles in Denmark and within militant Islamism. In the West, women have been involved in several terrorist attacks within the last year.

Only very few people now leave Denmark for the conflict zone in Syria/Iraq.
The pressure on IS may make more foreign fighters return home.
Many of these have been in Syria/Iraq for a long time and may be particularly radicalised and prone to violence constituting an increased terror threat against Denmark.
Women and minors may also pose a threat. The fact that more foreign fighters may leave the conflict zone can also increase the threat against Danish interests abroad.


Assessment of the terror threat to Denmark:

Center for Terror Analysis:

Original danish text:

Politiets Efterretnings Tjeneste DK.


PET’s indsats på kontraekstremismeområdet skal forebygge og forhindre, at grupper eller personer gennem brug af f.eks. vold, hærværk eller trusler søger at nå politiske mål.

Desuden har indsatsen fokus på strafbare handlinger, der har ekstremistisk baggrund, og som f.eks. er rettet mod personer og gruppers nationalitet, tro eller seksuelle orientering. Endvidere skal indsatsen forebygge og forhindre, at ekstremister udfører strafbare forhold eller truer den offentlige orden og sikkerhed.

PET arbejder som led i denne indsats tæt sammen med det øvrige politi og har bl.a. en væsentlig opgave med at sikre, at de relevante politimyndigheder kender trusselsbilledet og på den baggrund er i stand til at afpasse indsatsen i forhold til den aktuelle trussel.

PET’s indsats på kontraekstremismeområdet er forankret i Center for Kontraekstremisme.


Det venstreekstremistiske miljø i Danmark er kendetegnet ved en stadig stigende professionalisering og internationalisering.

Selvom hovedmodstanderen for det venstreekstremistiske miljø fortsat er den ekstreme højrefløj, er der samtidig en stigende tendens til, at miljøet knytter aktioner op på poli­tiske enkeltsager, der ikke alene har en bred opbakning i aktivistmiljøet, men en bred appel i befolkningen som sådan. Det drejer sig bl.a. om integrations- og asylpolitik samt klimapolitik.

Koblingen til politiske temaer med bred folkelig appel betyder, at den voldelige del af det venstreekstremistiske miljø i højere grad kan operere anonymt og i ly af det mere fredelige aktivistmiljø, hvorfra de søger at udnytte andres politiske og ideologiske aktiviteter med det formål at skabe konfronta­tioner med politiet.


Det højreekstremistiske miljø i Danmark forsøger fortsat aktivt at rekruttere nye medlemmer og sympatisører.

Det sker bl.a. gennem spredning og fremme af racistiske budskaber på internettet og gennem medierne. Målet er rekruttering og fastholdelse af tilhængere samt etablering af et modsætningsforhold mellem den brede befolkning og etniske minoriteter. Derudover forsøger højreekstremisterne i højere grad end tidligere at rekruttere fra Hooligan-miljøet.

Der har traditionelt være et tæt samarbejde mellem højreekstremistiske grupper i Danmark og ligesindede i udlandet, bl.a. gennem fælles arrangementer og manifestationer. Desuden har PET konstateret, at dele af det højreekstremistiske miljø herhjemme forsøger at etablere kontakt til voldelige ekstremistiske miljøer i udlandet.


Tendensen til øget polarisering og konfrontation mellem personer og grupperinger fra henholdsvis det højre- og det venstreekstremistiske miljø i Danmark er efter PET’s vurdering fortsat stigende. Der er set en optrapning i konfrontationerne mellem fløjene, og både venstre- og højreekstremister har i stigende grad fokus på systematisk at gennemføre voldelige aktioner rettet mod hinandens arrangementer så som møder, demonstrationer og koncerter.

De strafbare forhold på dette område udspringer såvel fra de venstreekstremistiske miljøer som fra højreekstremistiske kredse, og PET arbejder målrettet på at sætte ind over for alle former for voldelig politisk ekstremisme.

Samtidig er der også eksempler på, at disse direkte konfrontationer foregår i tæt samarbejde med ligesindede i udlandet, især i Tyskland og Sverige. Det er desuden fortsat PET’s vurdering, at man i disse miljøer arbejder målrettet på at anskaffe våben som led i disse konfronta­tioner.


Der har i de senere år været et stigende fokus på trusler og chikane mod politikere og andre offentlige personer. Risikoen for at blive udsat for trusler og chikane afhænger typisk af den enkelte persons eksponering i offentligheden eller udspringer af enkeltsager, og der er eksempler på, at politikere på både højre- og venstrefløjen udsættes for til tider grov chikane.

PET bliver løbende orienteret om denne type sager og vurderer bl.a., om truslerne giver anledning til særlige sikkerhedsmæssige foran­staltninger. Det kan være vanske­ligt at give en samlet karakteristik af de personer, der chikanerer og truer politikere. Der kan være tale om alt fra personer, der er vrede på “systemet”, til psykisk syge, perso­ner, der er påvirket af stoffer eller alkohol, eller ressourcestærke bor­gere, der er vant til at få deres vilje.
Hertil kommer naturligvis truslen fra ekstremistiske miljøer.

Truslen fra militant islamisme

PET vurderer, at der er personer og grupper i udlandet og i Danmark, der har intention om og kapacitet til at udføre terrorangreb mod Danmark, og at terrortruslen derfor er alvorlig.

Disse personer og grupper har overvejende et militant islamistisk udgangspunkt. De motiveres bl.a af en opfattelse af, at islam er under angreb fra Vesten og af Danmarks aktive udenrigs- og sikkerhedspolitik – senest udtrykt i det danske engagement i den internationale koalition mod IS.

Læs mere i Vurdering af Terrortruslen mod Danmark, februar 2017:

Last update January 13, 2018 12:00 GMT.

● The internet in the 21. century-new battleground for ●

❤ Executive Editor: Stephen Grey

✉ E-mail:

❤ Translations by John Hansen

✉ E-mail:

© Stephen Grey – Brighton UK 2016

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